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Thursday November 9,  2017 
 

TODAY'S MARKET BULLETS

 

 

Corn and soybean futures closed lower today after the USDA gave us

their all too familiar monthly crop report and WASDE surprise package.

Big crops get bigger, so why should we be surprised that USDA increased

US corn yield 3.6 bu/acre.  The average trade estimate was for a 3 bu/a

increase.  The 175.4 bu/a yield represents a new RECORD HIGH US corn

yield. 

 

Weekly export sales were above expectations for corn and wheat below
?expectation for soybeans.

The trade had expected a reduction in US soybean yield, USDA left the yield

unchanged.

 

Commodity funds sold 35k corn contracts, 11k soybean contract and bought

8k wheat contracts.  December corn futures made a new life-of-contract low today.


 

 

See the table below for the November USDA numbers:

 

 

USDA 2017 Yield (in bushels per acre)

 

 

USDA Nov 2017

Average Trade Estimate 

INTL FCS Estimate 

Range of Est.

USDA Oct 2017

Corn 

 175.4

172.4

173.7

171.7 - 174.0

171.8

Soybeans

  49.5

49.3

49.9

48.9 - 49.9

49.5

 

 

 

USDA 2017 Production (billion bushels)

 

 

USDA Nov 2017

Average Trade Est.

INTL FCS Estimate

Range of Trade Est.

USDA Oct 2017

Corn

 14578

14.333

14.434

14.250 - 14.459

14.280

Soybeans

  4425

4.408

4.467

4.375 - 4.467

4.431

 


USDA 2017/18 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels)

 

 

USDA Nov 2017

Average Trade Est.

INTL FCS Estimate 

Range of Trade Est.

USDA Oct 2017 

Corn 

 2.487

2.366

2.431

2.286 - 2.438

2.340

Soybeans

 .425

0.420

0.461

0.377 - 0.461

0.430

Wheat

 .935

0.957

0.941

0.940 - 0.980

0.960

 


World 2017/18 U.S. Carryout (in million tonnes)

 

 

USDA Nov 2017

Average Trade Est.

INTL FCS Estimates 

Range of Trade Est.

USDA Oct

Corn

 203.9

201.18

197.60

197.60 - 203.50

200.96

Soybeans

 97.9

95.50

93.50

93.00 - 97.00

96.05

Wheat

 267.5

266.78

265.70

261.00 - 269.00

268.13

 

 

 

Weekly Grain Export Sales:


Weekly Grain Export Inspections:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/ams/WA_GR101.txt

 

Take a few minutes to check out the new KG CASH BIDS PAGE

and the hyperlinks to NEW CHARTING capabilities. 

 

Take a few minutes to read Dr. Cordonnier's weekly update:

Corn & Soybean Advisor
www.soybeansandcorn.com

 

 
Dow Jones Industrial Average

  

 

Futures Closes 

 

11/9/2017

 

Commodity        

Symbol

Close

Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 17 Corn

CZ17

341 1/2

-6.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Jan18 Beans

SF18

985   

-13.50

SOYBEAN/CORN '17

SX17/CZ17

2.86

0.02

SOYBEAN/CORN '18

SX18/CZ18

2.58

0.02

Dec  17 Wheat

WZ17

445   

1.25

US Dollar Index      

DX

94.35

-0.423

Crude Oil

CLG17

57.15

0.34

Ethanol - Dec

AC

1.45

0.0060

 

 

 

 

Today vs Last Friday Close

Today

Last Friday

Change

 

 

 

 

Dec 17 Corn

341 1/2

348 1/4

-6.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 18 Beans

985   

986 3/4

-1.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dec  Wheat   

429   

425 3/4

3.25

 

 For you to bookmark and visit (click the links):

USDA Office of the Chief Meteorologist
Weather and Climate
Weather is one of the key factors affecting prospects for crop production and commodity prices. In 1978 the World Board and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration formed the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF). Housed at USDA, JAWF monitors the weather and assesses its likely impact on crops around the world. Regular briefings by Board experts are an important information source for USDA commodity forecasters as well as for the Secretary of Agriculture and other top officials at the Department.

Take a few minutes to review the following (click the hyperlink):

Prospective Plantings Grain Stocks Rice Stocks
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch, USDA

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2017/03_31_2017.pdf

 

 

COMMITTMENTS OF TRADERS REPORT (COT ) - FUND POSITION
DATE                          CORN       SOYBEANS        WHEAT


 

 

11/1/2016

-52,761

111,808

-108,578

11/8/2016

-13,478

125,121

-110,926

11/15/2016

-74,300

96,753

-131,867

11/22/2016

-45,638

115,644

-111,108

11/29/2016

-65,111

137,371

-121,929

12/6/2016

-65,428

124,758

-124,098

12/13/2016

-69,050

121,859

-102,068

12/20/2016

-95,526

111,993

-113,534

12/27/2016

-109,602

107,293

-119,665

1/3/2017

-94,034

98,254

-114,619

1/10/2017

-77,478

99,748

-96,583

1/17/2017

-53,768

137,221

-97,245

1/24/2017

17,760

186,103

-100,372

1/31/2017

4,828

159,467

-107,726

2/7/2017

31,089

156,306

-91,818

2/14/2017

97,199

174,701

-48,122

2/21/2017

106,758

161,595

-37,551

2/28/2017

87,567

129,690

-59,233

3/7/2017

87,020

124,065

-65,521

3/14/2017

-27,352

93,544

-110,092

3/21/2017

-84,118

60,639

-133,166

3/28/2017

-151,798

36,798

-144,878

4/4/2017

-141,759

-4,358

-147,121

4/11/2017

-147,243

-33,963

-140,835

4/18/2017

-160,377

-49,190

-154,345

4/25/2017

-180,360

-52,475

-171,269

5/2/2017

-170,603

-51,483

-123,214

5/9/2017

-203,976

-38,353

-113,819

5/16/2017

-200,695

-39,312

-130,695

5/23/2017

-173,188

-69,775

-120,701

5/30/2017

-198,114

-93,790

-121,605

6/6/2017

-127,078

-101,752

-112,413

6/13/2017

-4,015

-90,790

-85,706

6/20/2017

-50,327

-96,433

-11,789

6/27/2017

-105,570

-125,912

-10,437

7/3/2017

-37,607

-82,630

23,997

7/11/2017

115,066

7,212

53,971

7/18/2017

107,803

31,265

46,757

7/25/2017

106,678

35,953

33,051

8/1/2017

81,443

26,516

14,739

8/8/2017

63,862

813

-12,054

8/15/2017

28,885

-22,651

-36,337

8/22/2017

-26,023

-35,295

-68,790

8/29/2017

-63,532

-32,677

-70,126

9/5/2017

-103,898

-12,529

-79,685

9/12/2017

-116,334

-7,246

-76,704

9/19/2017

-130,902

11,589

-73,941

9/26/2017

-121,671

25,013

-55,714

10/3/2017

-130,959

23,135

-49,284

10/10/2017

-150,963

25,869

-67,427

10/17/2017

-154,639

67,513

-78,815

10/24/2017

-155,307

47,234

-83,548

10/31/2017

-199,135

39,016

-115,567

Wkly Change

-43,828

-8,218

-32,019

Record +

409,444

240,937

73,662

Record -

-236,201

-93,790

-171,269

Est Today

-228,135

48,016

-101,567

Change

-35,000

-11,000

+8,000

 

The weekly CFTC COT report showed funds shorter

the corn and wheat markets than estimated and longer

soybeans than estimated.

 

10/31/2017

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

COT Actual

-199,135

39,016

-115,567

Est on date

-185,307

38,234

-105,548

Difference

-13,828

782

-10,019


 

For in depth analysis of the CFTC COT report visit the

CME Commitments of Traders Analysis Tools
 

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-agricultural.html

 

Each Thursday I do  market analysis for Hoosier AgToday (HAT) that is podcast and excerpted
for airing in HAT segments on broadcast radio across Indiana.

You can find that audio on the HAT daily podcast or podcast player. The direct link is
http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/podcastplayer2.html.


Kokomo Grain Cash Grain Prices
http://www.kokomograin.com/index.cfm?show=11&mid=16


CROP INSURANCE CORNER

Crop insurance harvest prices were in the discovery period (October):

FINAL OFFICIAL RMA HARVEST PRICES:

Corn $3.49

Soybeans $9.75 
 

Spring prices for crop insurance were determined during

the month of February. 

RMA “official” spring crop insurance prices are:
                             Spring Price         Volatility factor

Corn                         $3.96 /bu                       0.19

Soybeans              $10.19 /bu                        0.16

Popcorn                $0.1703 / #                        0.19

 

 

Ag Economy Barometer Widget



Follow me on Twitter @MikeSilverSr 

USDA WASDE Supply/Demand

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/wasde/

For additional Market News and Information
www.AgriMoney.com

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/

 
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