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E-mail: Michael J. Silver
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Wednesday July 5, 2017  


TODAY'S MARKET BULLETS

Grain markets resumed trade at 9:30 am this morning following the July 4th
trading break.  After opening higher and then selling off, prices came back
to post positive closes today.
 

USDA CROP CONDITION REPORT AS OF jULY 2, 2017

CORN CONDITION
 
       very poor     poor       fair        good     excellent
     07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25
Colo    0     0     9     6    17    11    63    68    11    15
Ill     2     2     6     7    27    29    52    51    13    11
Ind     4     5    13    13    36    36    41    40     6     6
Iowa    1     1     3     3    18    17    62    63    16    16
Kans    1     1     6     6    30    32    52    50    11    11
Ky      1     1     3     3    11    11    69    74    16    11
Mich    1     0     5     4    26    29    57    57    11    10
Minn    0     1     3     3    17    18    64    63    16    15
Mo      2     1     5     5    26    28    56    57    11     9
Nebr    1     1     4     5    20    20    63    62    12    12
NC      0     1     4     5    16    17    57    57    23    20
ND      5     3    11    10    29    31    52    53     3     3
Ohio    2     1     7     7    35    34    43    46    13    12
Pa      0     0     3     2    20    13    56    68    21    17
SD      7     7    15    13    36    34    38    43     4     3
Tenn    0     0     2     1     9    12    52    50    37    37
Texas   1     0     5     5    24    25    60    56    10    14
Wisc    2     2     6     5    21    24    53    50    18    19
18-state
avg     2     2     6     6    24    25    55    55    13    12
yr-ago  1     1     4     4    20    20    59    59    16    16
 
 
--Silking-- 
         07/02 06/25  2016   Avg 
Colo         0     0     4     3 
Ill         12     2    19    21 
Ind          8     2    10    11 
Iowa         0     0     5     6 
Kans        19     8    32    26 
Ky          45    20    41    31 
Mich         0     0     1     1 
Minn         0     0     0     2 
Mo          25     6    52    34 
Nebr         8     0     9     9 
NC          78    60    80    78 
ND           2     0    15     5 
Ohio         3     1     2     4 
Pa           2     0     1     4 
SD           0     0     2     2 
Tenn        61    38    51    52 
Tex         63    56    52    62 
Wis          0     0     0     0 
18-state 
avg         10     4    14    13 
 
 
SOYBEAN CONDITION
   
        very poor     poor       fair        good     excellent 
     07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 07/02 06/25 
Ark     2     2     5     5    23    24    56    56    14    13 
Ill     2     2     6     6    22    22    59    59    11    11 
Ind     3     3    10    10    36    36    44    44     7     7 
Iowa    1     1     5     4    22    21    61    63    11    11 
Ks      1     0     3     2    29    29    61    63     6     6 
Ky      1     1     3     3    16    17    69    71    11     8 
La      1     1     4     6    18    20    63    58    14    15 
Mich    1     1     5     5    28    25    59    61     7     8 
Minn    0     0     5     4    23    20    59    62    13    14 
Miss    0     0     6     6    27    29    45    48    22    17 
Mo      2     1     5     5    31    30    54    55     8     9 
Nebr    1     2     5     5    24    23    64    63     6     7 
NC      0     0     2     3    14    14    77    77     7     6 
ND      5     4    12    12    35    31    45    49     3     4 
Ohio    3     1     7     6    32    33    44    48    14    12 
SD      8     9    15    12    41    40    33    36     3     3 
Tenn    1     0     3     1    13    12    57    60    26    27 
Wis     2     1     5     5    18    20    61    61    14    13 
18-state 
avg     2     2     7     6    27    26    54    56    10    10 
yr-ago  2     1     5     4    23    23    57    60    13    12 
PROGRESS:
        --Emerged--                            --Blooming-- 
     07/02 06/25  2016   Avg             07/02 06/25  2016   Avg 
Ark    97    94    97    92                69    60    61    46 
Ill   100    97    97    96                15     7    16    15 
Ind    97    90    98    97                14     2    15    16 
Iowa   98    96   100    98                12     2    18    15 
Ks     95    86    91    90                12     5     7     8 
Ky     90    82    86    86                13     2     5    10 
La    100    99    99    98                83    79    72    64 
Mich   94    92    99   100                13     2     8    10 
Minn  100   100   100    98                 9     1    16    15 
Miss   96    95    99    98                73    61    55    52 
Mo     94    89    95    85                12     7    13     8 
Nebr  100    98   100    98                28     7    10    19 
NC     86    79    87    84                12     4    11     8 
ND     99    97   100    98                 8     1    34    16 
Ohio  100    96    99    98                 9     1    12    10 
SD    100   100    99    98                15     6    23    18 
Tenn   87    80    90    82                20     6    14    14 
Wis    98    94    99    96                10     0    21     7 
18-state 
avg    98    94    98    95                18     9    20    17 
 
 
 
You can review the numbers after 4:00PM EST today at:
 
WEATHER FORECASTS ARE THE KEY FEATURE OF PRICE ACTION.
 
TAKE A FEW MINUTES TO REVIES  THE USDA JUNE 30
 
 
USDA June Acreage (mln acres)
  USDA June
2017
Average Trade Est. Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Mar 2017
Corn 90.886 89.903 89.0-91.0 89.996
Soybeans 89.513 89.750 88.5-90.5 89.482
Wheat 45.657 46.070 45.7-47.4 46.059
All Winter 32.839 32.830 32.5-33.8 46.747
Spring Wheat 10.899 11.206 11.0-11.6 11.308
Durum Wheat 1.919 2.002 1.9-2.2 2.004
 
 
 
U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks (bln bu)
  USDA
June 2017
Average Trade Est. Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
June 2016
Corn 5.225 5.123 4.690-5.360 4.711
Soybeans 0.963 0.983 0.870-1.119 0.872
Wheat 1.184 1.137 0.968-1.185 0.976
 
 
 

Keep an eye on the NWS 6-10 day and 7-14 day weather forecasts. Click the link below:

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

  

 

 

 

 

Futures Closes 

7/5/2017

 

Commodity        

Symbol

Close

Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 17 Corn

CU17

392   

3.50

Dec 17 Corn

CZ17

404   

4.75

 

 

 

 

Aug 17 Beans

SQ17

981 3/4

11.75

Nov 17 Beans

SX17

994 1/4

13.50

SOYBEAN/CORN '17

SX17/CZ17

2.46

0.02

 

 

 

 

Sep  17 Wheat

WU17

560   

5.00

US Dollar Index      

DX

96.07

0.101

Crude Oil

CLG17

44.98

-2.09

Ethanol - July

AC

1.51

-0.0050

       

Today vs Last Friday Close

Today

Last Friday

Change

Sep 17  Corn

392   

381   

11.00

Dec 17 Corn

404   

392   

12.00

 

 

 

 

 Aug 17  Beans

981 3/4

947   

34.75

Nov 17 Beans

994 1/4

954 3/4

39.50

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 17  Wheat   

539 1/4

511   

28.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read Dr. Cordonnier’s Comments at:

www.soybeansandcorn.com


For you to bookmark and visit (click the links):

USDA Office of the Chief Meteorologist
Weather and Climate
Weather is one of the key factors affecting prospects for crop production and commodity prices. In 1978 the World Board and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration formed the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF). Housed at USDA, JAWF monitors the weather and assesses its likely impact on crops around the world. Regular briefings by Board experts are an important information source for USDA commodity forecasters as well as for the Secretary of Agriculture and other top officials at the Department.

Take a few minutes to review the following (click the hyperlink):

Prospective Plantings Grain Stocks Rice Stocks
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch, USDA

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2017/03_31_2017.pdf

 

 

COMMITTMENTS OF TRADERS REPORT (COT ) - FUND POSITION
DATE                          CORN       SOYBEANS        WHEAT


 

 

 

6/7/2016

223,583

181,099

-58,366

6/14/2016

268,412

178,226

-55,130

6/21/2016

216,371

175,455

-77,461

6/28/2016

168,232

166,603

-84,974

7/5/2016

86,050

142,037

-106,232

7/12/2016

-5,886

128,813

-118,340

7/19/2016

-29,758

113,276

-121,448

7/26/2016

-67,571

109,696

-131,142

8/2/2016

-106,786

97,021

-130,471

8/9/2016

-141,495

99,425

-120,312

8/16/2016

-165,109

88,510

-106,956

8/23/2016

-158,486

113,446

-105,933

8/30/2016

-174,489

93,264

-123,338

9/6/2016

-186,127

77,299

-137,451

9/13/2016

-151,547

72,886

-129,643

9/20/2016

-156,033

86,782

-130,562

9/27/2016

-177,733

54,612

-134,573

10/4/2016

-153,096

61,991

-155,196

10/11/2016

-121,914

68,798

-137,243

10/18/2016

-51,986

88,272

-100,865

10/25/2016

-60,646

99,466

-124,421

11/1/2016

-52,761

111,808

-108,578

11/8/2016

-13,478

125,121

-110,926

11/15/2016

-74,300

96,753

-131,867

11/22/2016

-45,638

115,644

-111,108

11/29/2016

-65,111

137,371

-121,929

12/6/2016

-65,428

124,758

-124,098

12/13/2016

-69,050

121,859

-102,068

12/20/2016

-95,526

111,993

-113,534

12/27/2016

-109,602

107,293

-119,665

1/3/2017

-94,034

98,254

-114,619

1/10/2017

-77,478

99,748

-96,583

1/17/2017

-53,768

137,221

-97,245

1/24/2017

17,760

186,103

-100,372

1/31/2017

4,828

159,467

-107,726

2/7/2017

31,089

156,306

-91,818

2/14/2017

97,199

174,701

-48,122

2/21/2017

106,758

161,595

-37,551

2/28/2017

87,567

129,690

-59,233

3/7/2017

87,020

124,065

-65,521

3/14/2017

-27,352

93,544

-110,092

3/21/2017

-84,118

60,639

-133,166

3/28/2017

-151,798

36,798

-144,878

4/4/2017

-141,759

-4,358

-147,121

4/11/2017

-147,243

-33,963

-140,835

4/18/2017

-160,377

-49,190

-154,345

4/25/2017

-180,360

-52,475

-171,269

5/2/2017

-170,603

-51,483

-123,214

5/9/2017

-203,976

-38,353

-113,819

5/16/2017

-200,695

-39,312

-130,695

5/23/2017

-173,188

-69,775

-120,701

5/30/2017

-198,114

-93,790

-121,605

6/6/2017

-127,078

-101,752

-112,413

6/13/2017

-4,015

-90,790

-85,706

6/20/2017

-50,327

-96,433

-11,789

6/27/2017

-105,570

-125,912

-10,437

Wkly Change

-55,243

-5,643

73,917

Record +

409,444

240,937

73,662

Record -

-236,201

-93,790

-171,269

Est Today

-68,570

-68,912

50,563

Change

+11,000

+16,000

+7,000

 

 

Each Thursday I do  market analysis for Hoosier AgToday (HAT) that is podcast and excerpted
for airing in HAT segments on broadcast radio across Indiana.

You can find that audio on the HAT daily podcast or podcast player. The direct link is
http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/podcastplayer2.html.


Kokomo Grain Cash Grain Prices
http://www.kokomograin.com/index.cfm?show=11&mid=16


CROP INSURANCE CORNER
 

Spring prices for crop insurance were determined during

the month of February. 

RMA “official” spring crop insurance prices are:
                             Spring Price         Volatility factor

Corn                         3.96 /bu                       0.19

Soybeans              10.19 /bu                        0.16

Popcorn                0.1703 / #                        0.19

 

 

Ag Economy Barometer Widget



Follow me on Twitter @MikeSilverSr 

USDA WASDE Supply/Demand

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/wasde/

For additional Market News and Information
www.AgriMoney.com

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/

 
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