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E-mail: Michael J. Silver
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January 31, 2018

Soybean and wheat futures closed lower today while corn closed steady.
Today is month end so it was not surprising to see some position squaring
?and profit taking on the last day of the trading month.  Funds were buyers of
?4k corn contracts and sellers of 7k soybean and 6k wheat contracts.

The 10 day weather forecast for Argentina is still hot and day and very much
a factor in futures price action.  

Average daily ethanol production last week was down 23k bbl/day at 
1.040 mil bbl/day.

Tomorrow begins the Februay base price determination period for federal crop
insurance.  


 

At noon Friday Jan 12th  USDA released the January Crop Production, WASDE (final ’17-18)

Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.  There were some

surprises in the reports which produced some price volatility.  Soybeans closed

higher while wheat and corn closed lower.

 

See the following tables for the numbers and comparisons:  


2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)

 

USDA Jan

2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA Dec

2017-18

Corn

2.477

2.437

2.263-2.550

2.437

Soybeans

0.470

0.479

0.442-0.595

0.445

Wheat

0.989

0.959

0.855-0.987

0.960

 

2017-18 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)

 

USDA Jan

2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA Dec

2017-18

Corn

14.604

14.580

14.434-14.750

14.578

Soybeans

4.392

4.430

4.385-4.475

4.425

Wheat

1.741

 

 

1.741

 

2017-18 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)

 

USDA Jan

2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA Dec

2016-17

Corn

176.6

175.4

173.7-177.0

175.4

Soybeans

49.1

49.5

49.0-50.0

49.5

Wheat

46.3

 

 

46.3

 

2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA Jan

2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA Dec

2017-18

Corn

206.57

202.6

197.0-207.0

204.1

Soybeans

98.57

99.0

97.0-100.4

98.3

Wheat

268.02

268.1

265.0-271.0

268.4

 

U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks (bln bu)

 

USDA

Jan 2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

Jan 2017

Corn

12.516

12.429

12.230-12.675

12.386

Soybeans

3.157

3.179

2.963-3.306

2.898

Wheat

1.874

1.851

1.725-2.005

2.007

 

2018-19 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings (mln acres)

 

USDA

Jan 2018-19

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

2017-18

All Winter

32.60

31.5

30.1-32.5

32.7

HRW

23.10

22.4

21.1-23.3

23.4

SRW

5.98

5.6

5.2-5.9

5.7

White

3.56

3.5

3.1-3.8

3.5

 

2017-18 USDA South American Production (million tons)

 

USDA

Jan 2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

Dec 2017

ARG Corn

42.0

41.4

40.0-42.5

42.0

ARG Soy

56.0

56.0

54.0-58.0

57.0

BRZ Corn

95.0

93.3

86.7-98.5

95.0

BRZ Soy

110.0

110.1

108.0-115.0

108.0

 

 

 

 

Futures Closes 

 

1/31/2018

 

Commodity        

Symbol

Close

Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar 18 Corn

CH18

361 1/2

0.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar18 Beans

SH18

995 3/4

-4.50

 

 

 

 

SOYBEAN/CORN '18

SX18/CZ18

2.57

0.00

Mar 18Wheat

WH18

451 3/4

-5.50

US Dollar Index      

DX

88.94

-0.064

Crude Oil

CLG17

64.76

0.26

Ethanol - Mar

AC

1.41

0.0200

 

 

 

 

Today vs Last Friday Close

Today

Last Friday

Change

 

 

 

 

Mar 18 Corn

361 1/2

356 1/2

5.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar 18 Beans

995 3/4

985 1/2

10.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar  Wheat   

451 3/4

441   

10.75

 

 

 

 

CFTC Funds Net (# cnts) Futures Only (COT REPORT)
         Date           Corn         Soybeans    Wheat  

1/3/2017

-94,034

98,254

-114,619

1/10/2017

-77,478

99,748

-96,583

1/17/2017

-53,768

137,221

-97,245

1/24/2017

17,760

186,103

-100,372

1/31/2017

4,828

159,467

-107,726

2/7/2017

31,089

156,306

-91,818

2/14/2017

97,199

174,701

-48,122

2/21/2017

106,758

161,595

-37,551

2/28/2017

87,567

129,690

-59,233

3/7/2017

87,020

124,065

-65,521

3/14/2017

-27,352

93,544

-110,092

3/21/2017

-84,118

60,639

-133,166

3/28/2017

-151,798

36,798

-144,878

4/4/2017

-141,759

-4,358

-147,121

4/11/2017

-147,243

-33,963

-140,835

4/18/2017

-160,377

-49,190

-154,345

4/25/2017

-180,360

-52,475

-171,269

5/2/2017

-170,603

-51,483

-123,214

5/9/2017

-203,976

-38,353

-113,819

5/16/2017

-200,695

-39,312

-130,695

5/23/2017

-173,188

-69,775

-120,701

5/30/2017

-198,114

-93,790

-121,605

6/6/2017

-127,078

-101,752

-112,413

6/13/2017

-4,015

-90,790

-85,706

6/20/2017

-50,327

-96,433

-11,789

6/27/2017

-105,570

-125,912

-10,437

7/3/2017

-37,607

-82,630

23,997

7/11/2017

115,066

7,212

53,971

7/18/2017

107,803

31,265

46,757

7/25/2017

106,678

35,953

33,051

8/1/2017

81,443

26,516

14,739

8/8/2017

63,862

813

-12,054

8/15/2017

28,885

-22,651

-36,337

8/22/2017

-26,023

-35,295

-68,790

8/29/2017

-63,532

-32,677

-70,126

9/5/2017

-103,898

-12,529

-79,685

9/12/2017

-116,334

-7,246

-76,704

9/19/2017

-130,902

11,589

-73,941

9/26/2017

-121,671

25,013

-55,714

10/3/2017

-130,959

23,135

-49,284

10/10/2017

-150,963

25,869

-67,427

10/17/2017

-154,639

67,513

-78,815

10/24/2017

-155,307

47,234

-83,548

10/31/2017

-199,135

39,016

-115,567

11/7/2017

-202,456

45,053

-128,121

11/14/2017

-242,884

17,269

-113,264

11/21/2017

-212,279

20,314

-119,046

11/28/2017

-194,020

30,045

-126,466

12/5/2017

-155,061

54,885

-122,379

12/12/2017

-198,920

12,455

-165,412

12/19/2017

-223,405

-52,487

-164,098

12/26/2017

-198,493

-71,377

-152,060

1/2/2018

-189,536

-87,843

-135,523

1/9/2016

-216,832

-85,708

-135,516

1/16/2016

-225,063

-105,705

-148,969

1/23/2018

-217,057

-81,218

-149,777

Wkly Change

-8,231

-19,997

-13,453

Record +

409,444

240,937

73,662

Record -

-242,884

-93,790

-171,269

Est Today

-179,057

-73,218

-126,777

Change

+4,000

-7,000

-6,000

       

1/23/2018

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

COT Actual

-217,057

-81,218

-149,777

Est on date

-231,083

-83,121

-146,969

Difference

14,026

1,903

-2,808

 

The weekly CFTC COT report last week showed funds not

as short corn and soybeans as estimated and wheat shorter

than estimated.

 

Weekly Fuel Ethanol Production

Ag Economy Barometer Widget






The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions are solely those of the author, subject to change at any time, and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures, options, or over-the-counter derivative products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 
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