CBOT Jul19-Dec19 Old/New crop calendar spread is continuing its trend lower from the start of the 2019 calendar year, narrowing further to -19.75 cents under and making new contract lows of -21.00 cents under this week. The spread also has an additional 10.00 cents further towards -29.50 cent full carry levels, giving producers additional carry to recover and room for narrowing in the spread. The Jul19-Dec19 spread continues to hold below last months broken support and continues to make fresh contract lows. This gives corn spreads considerable room for further decline / narrowing (towards full carry) on the chart if the market decides the current stockpile of corn is over supplied relative to demand.
While below the 3/25/2019 high ($3.80) in front month May19 corn, it will be hard for spreads to widen (head higher on chart) above the -12.00 cents under price level, which correlated closely with this latest dead cat bounce. While weather and planting forecasts are turning the page for expectations and price discovery for this marketing year, there is still fundamental rational behind the continued