Morning Comments; Thursday, February 28th, 2019

Corn and soybeans are mixed on the overnight session.

Traders are beginning to question corn demand as exports had been robust earlier in the marketing year, but are now starting to fade. Last week’s catch-up sales report showed 238 million bushels sold during the government shutdown. The total was in line with expectations, but well below last year’s total for the same timeframe of 411 million bushels. Corn exports are now a meager 30 million bushels ahead of a year ago. Cumulative shipments have remained 300 million ahead of pace since mid-December.

US Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue confirmed the 10 MMT sale announcement from China last week is to be old-crop soybeans. If all deliveries go as promised, this is said to bring the export total 1.96 billion bushels, up from 1.875 billion from USDA’s latest estimate. If realized, this will bring domestic carryout down to 850 million bushels. Using the 2019/2020 data from the Ag Outlook conference, even with this decrease in carryout, ending stocks next year are expected to climb above 1 billion bushels.

Ethanol manufacturing data released yesterday showed an increase in production from recent weeks. Production for the week ending February 22nd showed an increase of 33,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 1.028 million barrels per day. Even with the increase in production, stocks dropped by 204,000 barrels and now stand at 23.71 million barrels. Margins have increased in recent weeks putting most plant margins back in positive territory.

Market Movers; Export sales data, month end positioning and trade news.


Market Commentary provided by:

Karl Setzer Grain Commentary