(HSY) (MDLZ) (CCK25) (CCZ25) (CAK25) (CAZ25) 

“Why cocoa prices have bottomed for now”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

• Wednesday Report - April 2, 2025

Demand destruction has helped cocoa prices break 30% from the highs established on December 18th. 

Following devastating weather events and disease issues in West Africa (which helped cocoa prices soar more than 200% in the past two years) what could ultimately happen is that an “El Niño neutral” climatological environment will likely have sizeable impacts on production in the next 6 to 12 months.

On Monday, WeatherWealth newsletter subscribers received my alert that bullish fundamentals will soon return to the market. Most importantly, a very small mid-crop harvest will be hitting the market in April and May which will very likely result in a squeeze. The Best Weather Spider, our market sentiment indicator, became bullish for the first time in over two months.

Notice that the global crop score is still extremely bullish (+4) vs economic scores bearish (-3) due to demand concerns. 

At Weather Wealth, we give subscribers free access to the “lite version” of our long-range weather program Climate Predict, as well as weekly updates to our exclusive Weather Spider for multiple commodities.

This forecasting tool helps farmers, producers, agribusinesses, energy hedgers, traders and investors make important decisions, sometimes months in advance. How? By looking at teleconnections such as sea ice, El Niño, La Niña and many others. This method is more sophisticated than  merely looking at standard GFS and European model forecasts. 

There is a possibility that summer weather problems could resurface for the west African cocoa crops again.

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Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.