WTI Crude Oil Futures (July Future)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 63.41, up +0.89 [+1.42%]

WTI Crude oil showed follow-through strength yesterday as geopolitical risk and Canadian wildfires aided in the short covering rally. Russia’s ability to export crude oil is being squeezed as sanctions continue to bite, and the probability of further sanctions from the Trump administration is growing as a ceasefire becomes less likely.

Today, WTI Crude Oil is lower by -0.34 [-0.54%] to 63.07

Crude is lower today on technical selling and the slowing of wildfires in Canada. The Canadian wildfires have shut in around 350k bpd for a short period, but overnight rainfall has slowed the fires and limited the risk of more barrels being taken offline.

Data Releases:

Last night’s API report was as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -3,300
Gasoline: +4,700
Distillates: +760
Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -3,128 estimate
Gasoline: -500 estimate
Distillates: +171 estimate
Refinery Utilization: +1.00%

Technical Analysis:

While crude showed follow-through strength, price failed to test our longer-term pivot pocket of 64.09-64.16***. We rather buy a settlement above our pivot-pocket, or wait for a retest of 61.00*** on a tactical long than buy within the current resistance level. Momentum is starting to favor the bulls.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…..

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