October sugar futures (SBV25) present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.

See on the daily bar chart for October world sugar futures that prices are in a downtrend and have just hit a 4.5-month low. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish mode as the red MACD line is below the blue trigger line and both lines are trending down. The sugar bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, to suggest more price downside in the near term.

Fundamentally, sugar prices have been under pressure from increased global production. The USDA has forecast a record global sugar surplus in 2025/26, due to increased production in major sugar-producing countries like Brazil, India, and Thailand. On the demand side, worries about a slowdown in global economic growth are also a bearish element for the sugar market.

A move in October sugar futures prices below chart support at the January low of 16.60 cents would give the bears more power and it would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 14.50 cents, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at this week’s high of 17.53 cents.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.